Yes.
Many consider Malthus’ thesis refuted by the incontestable observation that both population and per capita income are rising.
But Malthus was no fool. He simply had the misfortune to publish his Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, at the end of the Malthusian Era. His core observation that population increases eat up (literally) all gains in productivity was absolutely true at that time, and had been throughout history. He published his Essay at precisely the historical moment when something that had always been true ceased to be true. I think he can be forgiven for believing that an ironclad correlation implied an unavoidable law of economics.
The escape from Malthus’ Trap was general but not universal. Per capita income actually fell for many countries outside the West, a phenomenon known as the Great Divergence:
From A Farewell to Alms
The reasons for this divergence are hotly debated – imperialism, culture, and geography are the leading contenders, and all probably have a role.
But just as Malthus was wrong to conclude that there was no escape from his Trap, we would be just as wrong today to conclude that the Trap never existed, nor could continue to exist today.
Let’s look at a modern example. Kenya and Sri Lanka both share a colonial history, but very different cultures and geographies. Their economies were of similar sizes in 1990, and both have grown substantially since then
These are rapid rates of economic growth – 5.6% per year for Kenya, 7.2% for Sri Lanka. By comparison, EU growth rates were 2–3% for this period. Neither country has stagnated economically.
Both countries were very poor, with per-capita GDP around $2000 in the 1970s. Both had similar populations then. But Kenya’s population grew rapidly, while Sri Lanka’s grew much more modestly. Kenya, despite substantial economic growth, is still very poor, while Sri Lanka – despite a similar colonial history and a worse history of civil conflict – has become modestly well-off:
Data from http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/his…
There is no single simple explanation for the divergence between Kenya and Sri Lanka. But you’d have to be pretty obtuse to rule out population growth as a factor.
Just adding more people to an economy does not magically make it more productive. Those people need to have skills, they need to have opportunity, and they need to have health in order to put those skills to use.
Malthus was not wrong – he just overgeneralized his observations. The conditions that prevailed throughout history until 1800 – low literacy, high birthrates, oppression of females – gave rise to the Malthusian Trap. Where and whenever we see those conditions again, we can expect Malthusian economics to prevail again. Progress is never a given.